Recent posts

Here’s a striking result that caught me off guard the other day. It came up in a facebook thread, and judging by the discussion there it caught a few other people in this neighbourhood off guard too. The short version: chances are “self-expecting” pretty much if and only if they’re “self-certain”. Less cryptically: the chance of a proposition equals its expected chance just in case the chance function assigns probability 1 to itself being the true chance function, modulo an exception to be discussed below.... Read more

How much does a PhD from a prestigious program help you on the job market in academic philosophy? It makes a big difference to where you get a tenure-track job, if you do get one (see here). It also seems to make some difference to whether you get a tenure-track job (though maybe not as much as one might have thought: see here). But here I want to consider whether it makes a difference to how long it takes to get a tenure-track job, if you do get one.... Read more

This post is the second of two devoted to an idea of David Wallace’s: applying Google’s PageRank algorithm to the APDA placement data. Part 1 Part 2 Source on GitHub Last time we looked at the motivation and theory behind the idea. Now we’ll try predicting PageRanks. Can students who care about PageRank use the latest PGR to guesstimate a program’s PageRank 5 or 10 years in the future?... Read more

Recent papers

MORE PAPERS ≫

Resources

About

Associate Professor of Philosophy at the University of Toronto. Researching knowledge, probability, and decision-making. Indulging in programming and related nerdery.